March 2015

Special Issue on SPURS: Salinity Processes in the Upper-ocean Regional Study

Oceanography | March 2015

SPURS

SPURS

Oceanography

THE OFFICIAL MAGAZINE OF THE OCEANOGRAPHY SOCIETY

VOL.28, NO.1, MARCH 2015

Salinity Processes in the Upper-ocean Regional Study

Oceanography | Vol.28, No.1

Oceanography | March 2015

86

6–12 hours at surface to

transmit data to satellite

Descent to depth – 6 hours

1,000 m – drift approx. 9 days

Float descends

to begin profile

from a greater

depth – 2,000 m

Temperature

and salinity

profile recorded

during ascent –

6 hours

Total cycle

time – 10 days

1%

Land: 15,662

Rivers: 1.25 ± 0.1 Sv

97%

Oceans: 1,335,040

0.001%

Atmosphere: 12.7

85%

Evaporation

13.0 ± 1.3 Sv

15%

Evaporation

~ 2.7 Sv

77%

Precipitation

12.2 ± 1.2 Sv

23%

Precipitation

~ 3.5 Sv

2%

Ice (Land & Ocean): 25,540

66

Special Issue on the Salinity Processes in the

Upper-ocean Regional Study

14

SPURS: Salinity Processes in the Upper-ocean Regional Study—

The North Atlantic Experiment

By E. Lindstrom, F. Bryan, and R. Schmitt

20

Ocean Salinity and the Global Water Cycle

By P.J. Durack

32

Differences Among Subtropical Surface Salinity Patterns

By A.L. Gordon, C.F. Giulivi, J. Busecke, and F.M. Bingham

40

A River of Salt

By R.W. Schmitt and A. Blair

46

Data Management Support for the SPURS Atlantic Field Campaign

By F.M. Bingham, P. Li, Z. Li, Q. Vu, and Y. Chao

56

Salinity and Temperature Balances at the SPURS Central Mooring

During Fall and Winter

By J.T. Farrar, L. Rainville, A.J. Plueddemann, W.S. Kessler, C. Lee, B.A. Hodges,

R.W. Schmitt, J.B. Edson, S.C. Riser, C.C. Eriksen, and D.M. Fratantoni

66

Variability in Near-Surface Salinity from Hours to Decades in the Eastern

North Atlantic: The SPURS Region

By S.C. Riser, J. Anderson, A. Shcherbina, and E. D’Asaro

78

Mixed-Layer Salinity Budget in the SPURS Region on Seasonal to

Interannual Time Scales

By S. Dong, G. Goni, and R. Lumpkin

86

The Freshwater Balance Over the North Atlantic SPURS Domain from

Aquarius Satellite Salinity, OSCAR Satellite Surface Currents, and

Some Simplified Approaches

By K. Dohan, H.-Y. Kao, and G.S.E. Lagerloef

96

Sea Surface Salinity Observations with Lagrangian Drifters in the Tropical

North Atlantic During SPURS: Circulation, Fluxes, and Comparisons with

Remotely Sensed Salinity from Aquarius

By L.R. Centurioni, V. Hormann, Y. Chao, G. Reverdin, J. Font, and D.-K. Lee

106 Variability and Interleaving of Upper-Ocean Water Masses Surrounding

the North Atlantic Salinity Maximum

By A.Y. Shcherbina, E.A. D’Asaro, S.C. Riser, and W.S. Kessler

114 Surface Salinity in the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre During the STRASSE/

SPURS Summer 2012 Cruise

By G. Reverdin, S. Morisset, L. Marié, D. Bourras, G. Sutherland, B. Ward,

J. Salvador, J. Font, Y. Cuypers, L. Centurioni, V. Hormann, N. Koldziejczyk,

J. Boutin, F. D’Ovidio, F. Nencioli, N. Martin, D. Diverres, G. Alory, and R. Lumpkin

contents

VO L . 2 8 , N O.1 , M A R C H 2 0 1 5

Oceanography

20

Oceanography | March 2015

Oceanography | Vol.28, No.1

CONTACT US

The Oceanography Society

P.O. Box 1931

Rockville, MD 20849-1931 USA

t: (1) 301-251-7708

f: (1) 301-251-7709

info@tos.org

HAVE YOU MOVED?

Send changes of address to info@tos.org or

go to www.tos.org, click on Member Login,

and update your profile.

ADVERTISING INFO

Please send advertising inquiries to

info@tos.org or go to www.tos.org/

oceanography/advertise.html.

CORRECTIONS

Please send corrections to magazine@tos.org.

Corrections will be printed in the next issue

of Oceanography.

SPECIAL ISSUE SPONSOR

Production of this issue of Oceanography was

supported by the US National Aeronautics and

Space Administration (NASA).

SPECIAL ISSUE GUEST EDITORS

Eric Lindstrom (NASA), Frank Bryan

(National Center for Atmospheric

Research), and Ray Schmitt (Woods Hole

Oceanographic Institution)

124 Regional Rainfall Measurements Using the Passive Aquatic Listener During

the SPURS Field Campaign

By J. Yang, S.C. Riser, J.A. Nystuen, W.E. Asher, and A.T. Jessup

134 Sharing the Importance of Ocean Salinity Beyond the Scientific Community

By A. deCharon, C. Companion, R. Cope, and L. Taylor

142 Three-Dimensional Dynamics of Freshwater Lenses in the Ocean’s

Near-Surface Layer

By A.V. Soloviev, S. Matt, and A. Fujimura

150 From Salty to Fresh—Salinity Processes in the Upper-ocean Regional

Study-2 (SPURS-2): Diagnosing the Physics of a Rainfall-Dominated

Salinity Minimum

By the SPURS-2 Planning Group

REGULAR ISSUE FEATURE

160 The NOAA Vents Program 1983 to 2013: Thirty Years of Ocean Exploration

and Research

By S.R. Hammond, R.W. Embley, and E.T. Baker

DEPARTMENTS

04

QUARTERDECK. Celebrating Five Years of Ocean Exploration

Supplements to Oceanography

By E.S. Kappel

06

FROM THE PRESIDENT. Ensuring a Healthy Funding Environment

in Ocean Sciences

By M.S. Lozier

07

TRIBUTE. An Old Salt Retires

By R. Schmitt

08

COMMUNITY NEWS. Mark Cane: 2014 Fellow of

The Oceanography Society

Contributed by R. Seager

10

RIPPLE MARKS. Last of the Ice Bears? Climate Change Threatens Iconic

Polar Bears’ Food Sources

By C.L. Dybas

174 BOOK REVIEWS. An Introduction to Ocean Remote Sensing • Sea-Level

Science: Understanding Tides, Surges, Tsunamis and Mean Sea-Level

Changes • Double Diffusive Convection

181 CAREER PROFILES. Robert L. Burger, Associate Dean, Faculty of Arts and

Sciences, Yale University • Heather M.H. Goldstone, Science Editor, WGBH

and WCAI National Public Radio Stations

160

ON THE COVER

A montage of photographs from a SPURS cruise on R/V Knorr (cour-

tesy of Eric Lindstrom, NASA Headquarters) and a map depict-

ing annual mean ocean surface salinity in the Atlantic Ocean

(September 2012–September 2013) from NASA’s Aquarius satel-

lite (courtesy of Oleg Melnichenko, University of Hawaii). Red color

indicates higher salinity, while yellow and then blue are progres-

sively fresher waters. SPURS examined the saltiest waters in the

middle of the North Atlantic basin.

Oceanography | Vol.28, No.1

Vol.28, No.1, March 2015

Oceanography

SPURS

SPURS

Oceanography

THE OFFICIAL MAGAZINE OF THE OCEANOGRAPHY SOCIETY

VOL.28, NO.1, MARCH 2015

Salinity Processes in the Upper-ocean Regional Study

Oceanography | March 2015

Editor

Ellen S. Kappel

Geosciences Professional Services Inc.

5610 Gloster Road

Bethesda, MD 20816 USA

t: (1) 301-229-2709

ekappel@geo-prose.com

Contributing Writer

Cheryl Lyn Dybas

cheryl.lyn.dybas@gmail.com

Oceanography

W W W.TO S .O R G /O C E A N O G R A P H Y

Oceanography (ISSN 1042-8275) is published by The Oceanography Society, PO Box 1931,

Rockville, MD, 20849-1931 USA. ©2015, The Oceanography Society  Inc. All rights

reserved. Permission is granted for individuals to copy articles from this magazine for

personal use in teaching and research, and to use figures, tables, and short quotes from

the magazine for republication in scientific books and journals. There is no charge for

any of these uses, but the material must be cited appropriately.

For more extensive copying, a fee can be paid through the Copyright Clearance

Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA, 01923 USA; Phone: 978-750-8400;

Fax: 978-646-8600; http://www.copyright.com. Republication, systemic reproduction,

or collective redistribution of any material in Oceanography is permitted only with the

approval of The Oceanography Society.

Gregg J. Brunskill

84 Alligator Creek Road

Alligator Creek, Queensland 4816

Australia

g.brunskill@aims.gov.au

Margaret L. (Peggy) Delaney

Professor of Ocean Sciences

Ocean Sciences Department

University of California, Santa Cruz

1156 High Street

Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA

t: (1) 831-459-4736

f: (1) 831-459-4882

delaney@ucsc.edu

Charles H. Greene

Director

Ocean Resources & Ecosystems

Program

Department of Earth & Atmospheric

Sciences

Cornell University

2130 Snee Hall

Ithaca, NY 14853-2701 USA

t: (1) 607-255-5449

f: (1) 607-254-4780

chg2@cornell.edu

Kiyoshi Suyehiro

Principal Scientist

Laboratory of Ocean-Earth Life

Evolution Research

JAMSTEC

Tokyo, Japan

t: (81) 45-778-5800

suyehiro@jamstec.go.jp

James Syvitski

Executive Director of CSDMS

INSTAAR

University of Colorado-Boulder

1560 30th Street, Campus Box 450

Boulder, CO 80309-0450 USA

t: (1) 303-492-7909

f: (1) 303-492-3287

james.syvitski@colorado.edu

Peter Wadhams

Department of Applied Mathematics

and Theoretical Physics

University of Cambridge

Centre for Mathematical Sciences

Wilberforce Road

Cambridge CB3 0WA, UK

t: (44) 1223-760372

p.wadhams@damtp.cam.ac.uk

Design/Production

Johanna Adams

johanna-adams@cox.net

Assistant Editor

Vicky Cullen

PO Box 687

West Falmouth, MA 02574 USA

t: (1) 508-548-1027

f: (1) 508-548-2759

vcullen@whoi.edu

Associate Editors

THE

OCEANOGRAPHY

SOCIETY

P.O. Box 1931

Rockville, MD 20849-1931 USA

t: (1) 301-251-7708; f: (1) 301-251-7709

www.tos.org

The Oceanography Society was founded in 1988

to disseminate knowledge of oceanography and

its application through research and education, to

promote communication among oceanographers,

and to provide a constituency for consensus-

building across all the disciplines of the field.

OFFICERS

Susan Lozier, President

Alan Mix, President-Elect

Mark Abbott, Past-President

Susan Cook, Secretary

Susan Banahan, Treasurer

COUNCILORS

William Balch

Kristen Buck

Amy Burgess

Lee Karp-Boss

Gail Kineke

John Largier

Steven Lohrenz

Julie Pullen

EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR

Jennifer Ramarui

SPONSORS

Lockheed Martin Sippican Inc.

www.sippican.com

Ober | Kaler

www.ober.com

Sea-Bird Electronics Inc.

www.seabird.com

Teledyne RD Instruments

www.rdinstruments.com

Oceanography | March 2015

Oceanography | Vol.28, No.1

New Frontiers in Ocean Exploration: The E/V Nautilus 2014 Gulf of

Mexico and Caribbean Field Season is the fifth consecutive March sup-

plement to accompany Oceanography (see http://www.tos.org/ocean_

exploration). These booklets provide details about the innovative tech-

nologies Exploration Vessel Nautilus deploys to investigate the seafloor

and explain how telepresence can both convey the excitement of ocean

exploration to global audiences in real time and allow scientists on shore

to participate in expeditions. The supplements also describe the vari-

ety of educational programs the Ocean Exploration Trust supports in

partnership with schools, museums, and aquariums; internships

that bring high school students, undergraduates, grad-

uate students, and teachers on board Nautilus; and

the preliminary results from the past year’s field

season. Through these supplements, we have

explored the geology, chemistry, biology,

and archaeology of the Mediterranean,

Aegean, Black, and Caribbean Seas. In cel-

ebration of these accomplishments, I share

just a few of my favorite images captured by

Nautilus surveys over these past five years.

Next March, we look forward to bringing

you the story of the first Nautilus adventure

in the Pacific Ocean.

Celebrating Five Years of

Ocean Exploration

Supplements to Oceanography

QUARTERDECK

Oceanography | Vol.28, No.1

Ellen S. Kappel, Editor

Oceanography | March 2015

The northern part of the Kolumbo volca-

no’s crater floor, northeast of Santorini in

the Aegean Sea, has an extensive hydro-

thermal vent field where massive sulfide

chimneys are venting high-temperature

fluids (>200°C) and gases. (a) ROV sam-

pling massive sulfide chimney. (b) Broken

vent chimney revealing zonation of hydro-

thermal minerals. (c)  Sampling gases

being emitted at a hydrothermal vent

using a gas-tight container.

Above. Chersonesos A is a Byzantine shipwreck dated to the

ninth to eleventh centuries CE that lies at 135 m depth in the

suboxic zone of the Black Sea. This site was the focus of initial

excavation, high-resolution mapping, environmental monitor-

ing, and testing for an underwater museum. The inset shows

a jar recovered from the site for analysis and conservation.

Below. Wreck of M/S Dodekanisos, dis-

covered off the Datça Peninsula, Turkey,

with ROV Hercules hovering over the

bow. Left. Multibeam microbathymetry

map of the ship from a high-resolution

survey conducted at 15 m altitude with

Hercules. Sediment mounds resulting

from impact with the bottom are visible

on the wreck’s port side.

Oceanography | March 2015

Left. The southeast flank of Eratosthenes Seamount,

eastern Mediterranean Sea, hosted numerous chemo-

synthetic vent communities consisting of tubeworms,

clams, urchins, and crabs located around cracks with

chemical staining.

Oceanography | Vol.28, No.1

M

y graduate students’ notes from their fluid dynam-

ics class are eerily familiar. I recognize their anxiety

about oral qualifying exams, and also their glee about a snow

day. The camaraderie they share along their trek though gradu-

ate school brings back great memories, as does the delight of a

research breakthrough after weeks, maybe even months, of frus-

tration. What is different is the concern about research funding

that seems to permeate the graduate school experience today.

Apparently, the graduate student trek is now a bit steeper.

My graduate school journey began at the University of

Washington School of Oceanography in 1984. There was cer-

tainly talk about funding then, just not the lack of it. The avail-

ability of research funding was simply an element of the graduate

school experience, along with classes, cruises, exams, and that

thing called a dissertation. Thirty years is a fair stretch of time,

and over those years, much about ocean research has changed.

Today’s graduate students can access vast amounts of ocean data

collected by sophisticated instruments developed over those

years. Ocean circulation models have made dizzyingly impres-

sive strides, and their output has helped to break down the fairly

stout barrier between observational and modeling studies that

existed in 1984. International partnerships are easier to come by,

enriching students’ experiences. All in all, these advances have

widened the window of research opportunities for graduate stu-

dents in the twenty-first century. It is hard to imagine another

time when oceanographers addressed such relevant and com-

pelling research questions. And yet, graduate students, post-

docs, and certainly early career oceanographers see the window

of opportunity narrowing, not widening. How so? It is because

all those ideas, data, and computational resources need funding

to convert their potential to advances in ocean science.

Veteran oceanographers may differ on the merits of the

individual recommendations contained within the newly

released National Research Council report, Sea Change:

2015–2025 Decadal Survey of Ocean Sciences (http://www.nap.

edu/ catalog/21655/sea-change-2015-2025-decadal-survey-of-

ocean-sciences), but there is one sentiment that likely unites all

of us—the desire to ensure that young scientists with creative

ideas and research promise look at ocean research as a place

of opportunity. As a member of the committee that wrote the

NRC document, I can report that while each committee mem-

ber brought his or her own envelope of concerns, there was one

common concern: the impact of growing infrastructure costs

on the ability of the National Science Foundation’s Division of

Ocean Sciences to maintain a healthy funding environment for

all oceanographers, but in particular for those entering the field.

The meaning of a “healthy funding environment” was certainly

debated. What was not debated, though, was that the current

funding environment is not healthy, and that we certainly aren’t

headed in a direction that will improve it. Hence, the commit-

tee’s recommendation to substantially cut infrastructure costs—

we did not see another way to move in the direction we desired.

The bulk of the committee’s discussions focused on finances.

Readers of the report will likely focus on the recommended cuts

to infrastructure and the potential for research program fund-

ing. But ultimately, it is our intellectual resources that drive us

forward, and they must be continually renewed in order for

our field to remain vibrant. In order to attract bright investi-

gators, they must see a future, a wide window of opportunity

in ocean sciences.

At the end of the report, there is a short paragraph titled

Looking Ahead. It reads:

Attaining the visionary goals presented at the beginning of

this report will require a diverse and talented group of research-

ers; rapid adoption of new technologies to measure the ocean

in novel and cost-effective ways; elimination of the barriers to

interdisciplinary and interagency research; enhancement of

cost-shared partnerships across funding agencies, national bor-

ders, and sectors; and innovative educational programs that are

aligned with this vision. The committee strongly believes that

the ocean sciences community (including researchers and pro-

gram management) [is] prepared to strategically meet these

challenges and emerge with an even more innovative and com-

pelling future for the ocean sciences.

That compelling future requires funding so that our science

can attract the diverse and talented group of researchers who

will chart the future course for our field.

M. Susan Lozier, TOS President

Ensuring a

Healthy Funding Environment

in Ocean Sciences

FROM THE PRESIDENT

Oceanography | March 2015

In September and October 2012, R/V Knorr

operated in the North Atlantic to deploy auton-

omous platforms that would collect measure-

ments over the following year for the first phase

of the Salinity Processes in the Upper-ocean

Regional Study (SPURS-1). When the ship was

retired in late 2014, after 44 years of oceano-

graphic service, a plaque on the bridge (see

above, right) still displayed the vessel’s motto,

"Sal sume sub sole," which was provided by

Emerson Hiller, the first captain.

Hiller had also been captain of R/V Chain,

whose stack sported a logo of a strong arm and

a chain along with the Latin motto “Laboramus,”

or “We work.” He thought that was a bit pre-

sumptuous, and for the Knorr he wanted the

less somber motto “More fun under the Sun,”

and searched for someone to put it into Latin.

Townsend Hornor, President of the Associates

of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

(WHOI), gave the project to his wife Betsy,

who was trustee of a girls’ school in New York.

According to the WHOI oral history archives,

Hiller says: “I got a long letter from the school

explaining how they spent a whole month on

this project to put into Latin ‘more fun under

the Sun.’ In their research, the students found

that early Roman soldiers were paid in salt, a

very valuable commodity, and the soldiers

exchanged it for fun and entertainment. The

students thought it reasonable to employ salt

or sal to mean the same as ‘fun and enter-

tainment’ and came up with the slogan Sal

summi sub sole—more fun under the Sun—

more salt, actually. “

We

noticed

the

plaque

during

the

September/October 2012 deployment cruise,

and decided it was an excellent motto for

SPURS as well. However, my high school Latin

nagged at me a bit; something did not seem

quite right. Google Translate tells us that the

motto as actually printed means to “Take salt

under the sun.” “Take salt” reminded me of

the salt tablet dispensers common on ships

when I first started going to sea, before people

worried about their blood pressure. Perhaps

the inscriber misunderstood what the school-

girls actually conveyed.

The originally intended Sal summi sub sole

is well suited to SPURS. Actually, Sal summa

sub sole or “highest salt under the sun”

would be even better. We enjoyed wonder-

fully sunny skies at the center of the subtrop-

ical high during the cruise. We also measured

the highest surface salinities ever reported for

this area, just reaching 37.8 psu. Higher salin-

ities are found in the Mediterranean and Red

Seas, but the North Atlantic salinity maximum is

the saltiest spot in the open ocean. It was salt-

ier than ever when we were there in 2012, con-

sistent with the trend of “salty getting saltier,

fresh getting fresher” associated with the inten-

sifying water cycle over the ocean (see Durack,

2015, in this issue).

While we were at sea, we got word that the

Navy had decided to name Knorr’s replace-

ment ship R/V Neil Armstrong after the Navy

pilot who first walked on the moon. He had

passed away a few weeks before we sailed,

and his ashes were scattered at sea off the

Atlantic coast of Florida, at the same time and

latitude that we were working, though well to

our west. This event provided even more con-

nection of the Knorr with the NASA-funded

SPURS project. NASA had named the space

shuttles for oceanographic research vessels

and now an oceanographic ship was to be

named after a NASA hero. In recognition of the

occasion, we managed to make a call to the

International Space Station and

discussed the commonalities

of ocean and space explora-

tion with Commander

“Suni” Williams as

she whizzed

by overhead.

It was sad to see the Knorr retire in 2014. The

ship had a hand in many of the most significant

oceanographic discoveries of the last 44 years,

including the first samples of the Mid-Atlantic

Ridge, the GEOSECS (Geochemical Ocean

Sections Study) surveys, new life forms at deep-

sea hydrothermal vents, finding RMS Titanic,

doing many long sections for the World Ocean

Circulation Experiment (WOCE), and prob-

ing the ice-bound Arctic. Knorr logged more

than 1.36 million miles for science (the equiva-

lent of more than two round trips to the Moon

or 55 trips around Earth), visited 46 countries,

crossed the equator 58 times, and made it as

far north as 80°13.0'N, as far south as 68°41.3'S.

From the start, Captain Hiller instilled a strong

ethic of service to science throughout the crew,

from deck hands to oilers, engineers, and offi-

cers, and this continued through last fall. It is

a very capable ship and will be sorely missed

from the US oceanographic fleet. Fortunately,

its crew will transfer to the Armstrong when it

arrives at WHOI, and there they will carry on the

tradition of can-do service for science. They are

going to need a motto for the new ship, and I

have one to suggest…

REFERENCE

Durack, P.J. 2015. Ocean salinity and the global water

cycle. Oceanography 28(1):20–31, http://dx.doi.org/

10.5670/oceanog.2015.03.

AUTHOR. Ray Schmitt (rschmitt@whoi.edu) is Senior

Scientist, Department of Physical Oceanography,

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole,

MA, USA.

An Old Salt Retires

By Ray Schmitt

TRIBUTE

Oceanography | March 2015

Oceanography | Vol.28, No.1

Mark Cane

2014 Fellow of The Oceanography Society

Contributed by Richard Seager

Mark Cane, who was honored in 2014 as

a Fellow of The Oceanography Society, is

the G. Unger Vetlesen Professor of Earth

and Environmental Sciences at Columbia

University, based at Columbia’s Lamont-

Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades,

New York. He received a bachelor’s degree

from Harvard in 1965 and his PhD from

MIT in 1975. He moved to Lamont in

1985 and has made his research home

there ever since. His unusual career has

ranged from theoretical equatorial ocean

dynamics to studying links between cli-

mate variability and social conflict. In all

cases, he has applied his piercing intel-

lect, deep intuition, and methodological

rigor to make major advances in under-

standing of the ocean, the climate sys-

tem, and how climate variability and

change impact human society. In partic-

ular, Mark Cane is a founding father of

seasonal-to-interannual climate predic-

tion, a revolutionary field in ocean and

climate science.

Mark’s earliest contributions were

among his most fundamental when, work-

ing with Ed Sarachik, he developed the

theory of equatorial ocean wave dynam-

ics in a series of papers of tremendous

mathematical ingenuity and elegance.

This was a major advance in geophysi-

cal fluid dynamics that, perhaps unbe-

knownst to Mark at the time, also paved

the way for development of seasonal-

to-interannual prediction. By the early

1980s, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

(ENSO) had grabbed people’s attention,

but, despite Bjerknes’ pioneering work

on positive tropical atmosphere-ocean

feedbacks, there was no understanding

COMMUNITY NEWS

of how the system oscillated between

El Niños and La Niñas.

Mark and his graduate student, Steve

Zebiak, set about building a numerical

model of the tropical Pacific atmosphere-

ocean system using an ocean model based

on Mark’s earlier equatorial wave theory.

The Zebiak-Cane model simulated ENSO

with a quite remarkable degree of real-

ism, partly because of the clever and wise

choice to construct the model as a lin-

earization about the observed climato-

logical mean basic state. State-of-the-art

coupled models retain notorious tropical

biases, and Mark’s decision to bypass that

whole matter probably advanced predic-

tion by a couple of decades. This decision

reflects his great dexterity and flexibility

in approaching scientific investigation:

he produced both a series of mathemati-

cally elegant and highly formal papers on

wave dynamics and a model that drew on

that work but, by necessity, introduced

simplifications and fixes that could only

be justified with intuition and after-the-

fact proof that the model worked. The

field of seasonal-to-interannual (S/I) pre-

diction can thank Mark for his unique

ability to combine brilliant theories with

utter pragmatism.

Before fully understanding the phys-

ical basis for the growth and decay of

El Niño events, Mark and Steve applied

the model to hindcasting past El Niños,

initializing them with sea surface tem-

perature anomalies seasons in advance

of the event. Because this proved suc-

cessful, they then, in a bold (and some

said rash) move, in summer 1986 pub-

lished and disseminated a prediction of

the 1986/87 El Niño event. In Henry IV

Part I, Glendower says, “I can call spirits

from the vasty deep,” to which Hotspur

retorts, “Why, so can I, or so can any

man; But will they come when you do

call for them?” The answer to that ques-

tion is that, in the winter of 1986/87 when

Mark summoned forth an El Niño from

the tropical Pacific Ocean, it did indeed

come. And it was not a flash in the pan

but the birth of S/I prediction, Mark’s

baby, a startling success that revolution-

ized climate science.

Mark realized the potential of what

he had unleashed, and putting his deep

sense of social justice into practice,

joined with Ed Sarachik to spearhead

the creation by the US National Oceanic

and Atmospheric Administration of

the International Research Institute for

Climate Prediction (now IRI for Climate

and Society). IRI was and remains unique

in that its work involves not just S/I pre-

diction but also application of the predic-

tions to problems in such areas as agri-

culture, water resources, hazards, and

public health across the world, with a spe-

cial focus on the developing world. From

its pilot project days in the early 1990s

to the large and dynamic organization it

is now, IRI proves the value of seamless

prediction and adaptation where climate,

agricultural, and health scientists, along

with others, work side by side and where

oceanographic and atmospheric research

inform and are informed by on-the-

ground decision making in, say, tropical

Africa. In 1979 when Mark was writing

“Forced Baroclinic Ocean Motions III:

The Linear Equatorial Bounded Case”

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100

Made with Publuu - flipbook maker