Oceanography | December 2022
Oceanography
THE OFFICIAL MAGAZINE OF THE OCEANOGRAPHY SOCIETY
VOL.35, NO.3–4, DECEMBER 2022
THE NEW ARCTIC OCEAN
SPECIAL ISSUE ON
Oceanography | Vol.35, No.3–4
contents
VOL. 35, NO. 3–4, DECEMBER 2022
POWERING
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Drift
contents
VOL. 35, NO. 3–4, DECEMBER 2022
SPECIAL ISSUE ON
THE NEW ARCTIC OCEAN
06
FROM THE GUEST EDITORS. Introduction to the Special Issue
By T. Weingartner, C. Ashjian, L. Brigham, T. Haine, L. Mack, D. Perovich, and B. Rabe
10
An Updated Assessment of the Changing Arctic Sea Ice Cover
By W.N. Meier and J. Stroeve
20
A Review of Arctic Sea Ice Climate Predictability in Large-Scale Earth
System Models
By M.M. Holland and E.C. Hunke
28
Observing Arctic Sea Ice
By M.A. Webster, I. Rigor, and N.C. Wright
38
SIDEBAR. The ICESat-2 Mission and Polar Sea Ice
By R. Kwok
40
SIDEBAR. Ice Mass Balance Buoys
By D. Perovich
42
Eddies and the Distribution of Eddy Kinetic Energy in the Arctic Ocean
By W.-J. von Appen, T.M. Baumann, M. Janout, N. Koldunov, Y.-D. Lenn, R.S. Pickart,
R.B. Scott, and Q. Wang
52
Arctic Ocean Water Mass Structure and Circulation
By B. Rudels and E. Carmack
66
Turbulent Mixing in a Changing Arctic Ocean
By T.P. Rippeth and E.C. Fine
76
Air-Ice-Ocean Interactions and the Delay of Autumn Freeze-Up in the
Western Arctic Ocean
By J. Thomson, M. Smith, K. Drushka, and C. Lee
88
SIDEBAR. The Arctic Radium Isotope Observing Network (ARION):
Tracking Climate- Driven Changes in Arctic Ocean Chemistry
By L. Kipp and M. Charette
90
SIDEBAR. Nansen and Amundsen Basins Observational System (NABOS):
Contributing to Understanding Changes in the Arctic
By A.V. Pnyushkov and I.V. Polyakov
94
Arctic Ocean Boundary Exchanges: A Review
By S. Bacon, A.C. Naveira Garabato, Y. Aksenov, N.J. Brown, and T. Tsubouchi
94
88
10
52
Oceanography | December 2022
Oceanography | Vol.35, No.3–4
Iridium
Satellite
WARM Buoy
Earth
Observing
Satellites
DATA
DATA
DATA
DATA
DATA
Meteorological
Sensors
Ice-Tethered
Profler
Moored
Profler
Ice-
Profling
Sonar
AUV
Glider
NAVIGATIONAL SIGNAL
NAVIGATIONAL SIGNAL
NAVIGATIONAL SIGNAL
C02 Sensors
Bio-Optical
Sensors
Argo
Float
Mooring
with
Profler
C02 Sensors
(Not to Scale)
Scandinavia
Barents
Sea
Laptev
Sea
Lena
Delta
103 SIDEBAR. Increasing Freshwater Fluxes from the Greenland Ice Sheet
Observed from Space
By B. Wouters and I. Sasgen
106 An Interdisciplinary Perspective on Greenland’s Changing Coastal Margins
By F. Straneo, D.A. Slater, C. Bouchard, M.R. Cape, M. Carey, L. Ciannelli, J. Holte,
P. Matrai, K. Laidre, C. Little, L. Meire, H. Seroussi, and M. Vernet
118 Interactions between the Arctic Mediterranean and the Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation: A Review
By W. Weijer, T.W.N. Haine, A.H. Siddiqui, W. Cheng, M. Veneziani, and P. Kurtakoti
128 SIDEBAR. Greenland Ice Loss Rate: How this Century Compares to
the Holocene
By J. Briner
130 Harmful Algal Blooms in the Alaskan Arctic: An Emerging Threat as
the Ocean Warms
By D.M. Anderson, E. Fachon, K. Hubbard, K.A. Lefebvre, P. Lin, R. Pickart, M. Richlen,
G. Sheffield, and C. Van Hemert
140 SIDEBAR. Observations of Declining Primary Productivity in the Western
Bering Strait
By K.E. Frey, J. Clement Kinney, L.V. Stock, and R. Osinski
144 Changing Biogeochemistry of the Arctic Ocean: Surface Nutrient and CO2
Cycling in a Warming, Melting North
By L.W. Juranek
156 SIDEBAR. Alaskan Seabird Die-Offs
By R. Kaler and K. Kuletz
158 Northward Range Expansion of Subarctic Upper Trophic Level Animals into
the Pacific Arctic Region
By K.M. Stafford, E.V. Farley, M. Ferguson, K.J. Kuletz, and R. Levine
167 Strategy for Protecting the Future Arctic Ocean
By L.W. Brigham and J.T. Gamble
178 PERSPECTIVE. Future Arctic Marine Navigation: Complexity
and Uncertainties
By L.W. Brigham
180 Increased Prevalence of Open Water During Winter in the Bering Sea:
Cultural Consequences in Unalakleet, Alaska, 2022
By K.R.S. Erickson and T. Mustonen
189 SIDEBAR. Co-Production of Knowledge in Arctic Research: Reconsidering
and Reorienting Amidst the Navigating the New Arctic Initiative
By M.L. Druckenmiller
192 SIDEBAR. The Yup’ik Atlas: Making History in Southwest Alaska
By A. Fienup-Riordan
194 SIDEBAR. Research Networking Activities Support Sustained Coordinated
Observations of Arctic Change
By C. Chythlook, M. Rudolf, M. Biermann, H. Eicken, and S. Starkweather
196 SIDEBAR. Co-Production of Sea Ice Knowledge in Uummannaq Bay,
Greenland
By J. Ryan, P.E. Dahl, and B. Dale
198 Monitoring Alaskan Arctic Shelf Ecosystems Through Collaborative
Observation Networks
By S.L. Danielson, J.M. Grebmeier, K. Iken, C. Berchok, L. Britt, K.H. Dunton, L. Eisner,
E.V. Farley, A. Fujiwara, D.D.W. Hauser, M. Itoh, T. Kikuchi, S. Kotwicki, K.J. Kuletz,
C.W. Mordy, S. Nishino, C. Peralta-Ferriz, R.S. Pickart, P.S. Stabeno, K.M. Stafford,
A.V. Whiting, and R. Woodgate
130
210
144
192
Oceanography | Vol.35, No.3–4
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210 Emerging Technologies and Approaches for In Situ, Autonomous Observing
in the Arctic
By C.M. Lee, M. DeGrandpre, J. Guthrie, V. Hill, R. Kwok, J. Morison, C.J. Cox, H. Singh,
T.P. Stanton, and J. Wilkinson
222 SIDEBAR. Changes in Arctic Ocean Circulation from In Situ and Remotely
Sensed Observations: Synergies and Sampling Challenges
By J. Morison, R. Kwok, and I. Rigor
224 SIDEBAR. A Year in the Changing Arctic Sea Ice
By M.D. Shupe and M. Rex
226 SIDEBAR. Arctic Data Management and Sharing
By P.L. Pulsifer and C.M. Lee
228 SIDEBAR. Float Your Boat: Launching Students into the Arctic Ocean
By D. Forcucci, I. Rigor, W. Ermold, and H. Stern
DEPARTMENTS
05
QUARTERDECK. The Arctic Ocean: Round Two
By E.S. Kappel
230 FROM THE TOS JEDI COMMITTEE. Limited Opportunities and Numerous
Barriers to Ocean Science Careers in Under-Resourced Nations
By T. Osborne, C. Pattiaratchi, and E. Meyer-Gutbrod
232 THE OCEANOGRAPHY CLASSROOM. Teaching Oceanography by
Engaging Students in Civic Activism
By B.C. Monger
234 BOOK REVIEW. Lethal Tides: Mary Sears and the Marine Scientists Who
Helped Win World War II, by C. Musemeche
Reviewed by D.J. Baker
236 CAREER PROFILES. Regina Easley-Vidal, Research Chemist, National
Institute of Standards and Technology, and Adjunct Professor, Georgetown
University • Sarah Close, Officer, Lenfest Ocean Program, The Pew
Charitable Trusts
ON THE COVER
A sunset view of Arctic sea ice freeze-up from
R/V Polarstern at 11.8°E, 81.5°N on September 29,
2020. The photo was taken during the transit
home after the year-long Multidisciplinary drifting
Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC)
expedition. Photo credit: Melinda Webster, University
of Alaska Fairbanks
SPECIAL ISSUE SPONSORS
Support for production of this special issue was
provided by the US Arctic Research Commission;
National Science Foundation, Office of Polar Programs,
Arctic Sciences Section; and Office of Naval Research.
SPECIAL ISSUE GUEST EDITORS
Tom Weingartner, University of Alaska Fairbanks
Carin Ashjian, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Lawson Brigham, Wilson Center’s Polar Institute
Thomas Haine, The Johns Hopkins University
Liza Mack, Aleut International Association
Don Perovich, Dartmouth College
Benjamin Rabe, Alfred Wegener Institute
Oceanography | December 2022
Oceanography | Vol.35, No.3–4
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Oceanography contains peer-reviewed articles that chronicle
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Oceanography | Vol.35, No.3–4
Oceanography | December 2022
EVERY DECADE OR SO, it is worth revisiting a topic that we
previously covered in Oceanography to provide the community
with updates on progress. This special issue on The New Arctic
Ocean is the latest example. In 2011, we published a special issue
on The Changing Arctic Ocean (https://tos.org/ oceanography/
issue/ volume-24-issue-03) featuring some of the advances made
in polar science resulting from the International Polar Year of
2007–2008. Articles in this current special issue further explore
the continuing, profound, and increasingly rapid changes
occurring in the Arctic Ocean, illuminated by another decade
of advances in data collection, analysis, and computation, and
enriched by infusions of Indigenous knowledge. Continued
warming of the “new” Arctic Ocean, which is already exhibiting
further sea ice decline and “Atlantification,” more coastal ero-
sion, the potential for more frequent and larger harmful algal
blooms, and alterations to ecosystem functioning, among other
significant changes, is of great consequence to local coastal com-
munities’ food security and infrastructure, and some changes,
such as sea ice decline, likely have global implications.
Tom Weingartner led the guest editor team that included
Carin Ashjian, Lawson Brigham, Thomas Haine, Liza Mack,
Don Perovich, and Benjamin Rabe. All are credited with giv-
ing careful consideration to the seven topics covered in this spe-
cial issue, soliciting article contributions from a wide range of
experts who work on Arctic Ocean problems, and shepherding
the articles through peer review—much of which was accom-
plished when the COVID pandemic was still strongly affecting
research and teaching. It is perhaps an understatement to say it
was a challenging time to publish. In addition to giving the guest
editors a shout out for their time, effort, and thoughtful input
that led to an outstanding, well-rounded set of papers, I would
like to thank the US Arctic Research Commission; the National
Science Foundation, Office of Polar Programs, Arctic Sciences
Section; and the Office of Naval Research for supporting pro-
duction of this special issue.
QUARTERDECK
Ellen S. Kappel, Editor
Upcoming
Oceanography Special Issues
GEOTRACES
Near-Inertial Shear and Kinetic Energy in
the North Atlantic Experiment (NISKINE)
Pacific Marine Environmental
Laboratory: 50 Years of Innovative
Research in Oceanography
Building Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion
in the Ocean Sciences
Sea Grant
tos.org/oceanography
THE ARCTIC OCEAN: ROUND TWO
ARTICLE DOI. https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2022.137
Oceanography | December 2022
Photo credit: K. Jeffries/Ocean Image Bank
Oceanography | Vol.35, No.3–4
INTRODUCTION TO THE SPECIAL ISSUE ON
THE NEW ARCTIC OCEAN
By Thomas Weingartner, Carin Ashjian, Lawson Brigham, Thomas Haine,
Liza Mack, Don Perovich, and Benjamin Rabe
FROM THE GUEST EDITORS
One hundred and thirty years ago,
Fridtjof Nansen, the Norwegian polar
explorer and scientist, set off on a bold
three-year journey to investigate the
unknown Arctic Ocean. The expedition
relied on a critical technological develop-
ment: a small, strong, and maneuverable
vessel, powered by sail and an engine,
with an endurance of five years for twelve
men. His intellectual curiosity and care-
ful observations led to an early glimpse
of the Arctic Ocean’s circulation and its
unique ecosystem. Some of Nansen’s
findings on sea ice and the penetration
of Atlantic Water into the Arctic Ocean
established a benchmark against which
we have measured profound changes
over the past few decades. In contrast, lit-
tle was known about the Arctic Ocean’s
ecosystem processes prior to the onset of
anthropogenic climate change. Nansen’s
successes, which paved the way for subse-
quent research, were gained in part from
Indigenous Greenlanders who taught him
how to survive in this harsh environment.
A little over a century after Nansen’s
expedition, the scientific community
staged the fourth International Polar Year
(IPY) in 2007–20081. That IPY, motivated
by the development and persistence of
profound changes in the Arctic Ocean’s
physical environment and its ecosystems
over the preceding decades, consisted
of extensive international observational
efforts and inspired the development
of new models, technologies, and novel
approaches to entrain the insights of
Arctic residents into Arctic studies. The
changes that catalyzed the impetus for the
IPY included the dramatic shrinking in
thickness and extent of summer sea ice,
warm pulses of Atlantic water circulating
through the Arctic Ocean’s sub-basins, an
increase in the heat flux from the Pacific
to the Arctic, variations in freshwater
storage within the Arctic basin, and alter-
ations in the marine ecosystems and bio-
geochemical cycles of the Arctic Ocean
and its adjacent continental shelves. The
IPY results generated new questions con-
cerning the internal and external mecha-
nisms that control the Arctic Ocean and
its role in global climate, and its evolu-
tion toward a new, but uncertain, climatic
state. These processes span a broad spec-
trum of interconnected spatial and tem-
poral scales and entail complex but inad-
equately known interactions. Increasingly
sophisticated climate models predict
that warming of the Arctic’s atmosphere
and ocean will continue, with the Arctic
eventually becoming seasonally ice-free.
Understanding how the Arctic Ocean will
adjust to these changes and their ramifi-
cations for society poses challenges that
motivate continued national and inter-
national scientific efforts. One goal of
these studies is to try to determine how
the Arctic Ocean will evolve so that accu-
rate predictions can be made to guide
socio-economic decisions. To summa-
rize all these advances, Oceanography
devoted a special issue in 2011 to the
IPY (https://tos.org/oceanography/issue/
volume-24-issue-03).
Yet, after only one more decade of
change in the Arctic Ocean, another
special issue is due. This one—The New
Arctic Ocean—highlights some of the
scientific advances and illuminates the
considerable international investments
undertaken since the 2007–2008 IPY. The
papers comprising this issue summarize
the status and current trends of the Arctic
Ocean, explore many of the processes
and interactions controlling these trends,
assess gaps in our understanding, sug-
gest directions for future research, dis-
cuss geopolitical topics pertinent to the
potential industrial development of the
Arctic Ocean, and describe some of the
concerns and responses of the Indigenous
communities that depend upon this
unique marine ecosystem. This special
issue is constructed around seven broad,
albeit overlapping, research themes that
focus on sea ice, physical oceanography
(including ocean circulation), pan-Arctic
and global perspectives, marine ecosys-
tems and biogeochemistry, geopolitical
considerations, Indigenous perspectives,
and several recent and ongoing long-term
1 Previous IPYs occurred in 1881–1884, 1932–1933, and 1957–1958, the latter also called the International Geophysical Year (IGY) because it included
research outside the polar areas.
Oceanography | December 2022
observational efforts and techniques.
The presentations include both papers
and sidebars (short reports) that high-
light some of the research findings,
approaches, challenges, and outstanding
questions developed over the past decade.
Within the sea ice theme, Meier and
Stroeve summarize current trends in
sea ice concentration, age, and thick-
ness; snow depth; and melt and freeze-up
dates using satellite-borne passive micro-
wave sensors, and they consider the fac-
tors driving these trends. Holland and
Hunke provide an overview of current
and near-future sea ice models developed
for use in climate studies, discuss recent
advances for improving sea ice predict-
ability, and examine prediction consis-
tencies across many of these models.
Webster et al. illustrate the spatial and
temporal scales of sea ice variability and
discuss how this variability can com-
plicate the synthesis of ice observations
from disparate sampling methods. They
then discuss how combining observa-
tions across spatial and temporal scales
can resolve these complications and yield
a better understanding of Arctic sea ice
system behavior. Two sidebars comple-
ment these papers. Perovich describes
autonomous ice mass balance buoys that
collect time-series observations of snow
and ice accumulation and melt. He then
shows that in collocating these buoys with
other autonomous systems, an observa-
tional network of the atmosphere, ice,
and ocean is achievable. Kwok provides
an overview of the ICESat-2 altimeter’s
abilities to observe sea ice and continen-
tal ice sheets and to detect the topogra-
phy of the sea surface height field, which
reflects the ocean circulation.
Changing sea ice properties interact
with the Arctic Ocean’s physical ocean-
ographic regime consisting of water
masses, circulation, and mixing. Rudels
and Carmack discuss how these pro-
cesses, mediated by winds, the influx of
waters from the North Pacific and North
Atlantic Oceans, and the enormous cir-
cumpolar terrestrial runoff, influence the
basin’s stratification and the subsequent
export of Arctic Ocean waters into the
North Atlantic. Along the same vein, a
sidebar by Pnyushkov and Polyakov
details the recent history of changes in
North Atlantic-derived waters flowing
along the Eurasian continental slope and
their connection to lower latitude pro-
cesses. The extensive continental shelf
area of the Arctic Ocean receives a mas-
sive riverine sediment load that will
increase with climate warming and affect
biogeochemical processes. Kipp and
Charette’s sidebar describes how radium
isotopes are effective tracers of terrestrial-
derived elements and are used to mon-
itor alterations in the Arctic Ocean’s
chemistry. Von Appen et al. review the
geographical heterogeneity and impor-
tance of mesoscale (~10 km diameter)
eddies that influence basin dynamics and
much of the mass and material exchanges
between the continental shelves and
the deep basin. At even smaller scales,
Rippeth and Fine review turbulent mix-
ing in an increasingly ice-free Arctic
Ocean, and then discuss how this mix-
ing varies geographically, and its sensi-
tivity to the changing seasonal ice cycle.
Thomson et al. focus on the complex
air-ice-ocean feedback mechanisms that
drive autumn ice formation and discuss
the spring and summer preconditioning
processes that influence fall freeze-up.
The exchange of waters between
the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans
influences
the
Atlantic
Meridional
Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which
plays an important role in global climate
and oceanic sequestration of CO2. Weijer
et al. review recent observational and
modeling efforts that advance our under-
standing of the impacts of the changing
Arctic Ocean on the AMOC and the effects
on the Arctic due to feedbacks from the
AMOC. Bacon et al. discuss how inverse
methods, when applied to long- term
measurements collected along the Arctic
Ocean’s maritime boundaries, can be used
to generate estimates of surface fluxes of
heat and freshwater, net biogeochemical
fluxes, and estimates of ocean water mass
transformation rates. The AMOC is also
influenced by fresh water discharged from
the Greenland Ice Sheet. A sidebar by
Wouters and Sasgen examines changes
in Greenland ice sheet mass from 2002 to
the present using data from the Gravity
Recovery
And
Climate
Experiment
(GRACE) and the GRACE-FollowOn
Oceanography | Vol.35, No.3–4
satellite missions, and discusses the impli-
cations of this ice loss for global sea level.
In another sidebar, Briner compares the
current rate of Greenland ice loss to ice
losses over the past 12,000 years. Straneo
et al. describe how this glacial discharge,
along with numerous other interacting
factors, impacts local coastal ecosystems
and Greenland’s Indigenous peoples.
The loss of sea ice and changes in its
seasonality have profound influences on
the Arctic Ocean’s ecosystems and bio-
geochemical cycles, with consequences
for the peoples who rely on these eco-
systems for their sustenance, culture,
and livelihood. Juranek discusses how
spatially and temporally varying factors
within sub-regions of the Arctic give rise
to a complex suite of biogeochemical and
ecological responses relevant to nutri-
ent cycling, trophic transfers, pelagic-
benthic coupling, ocean acidification,
and the capacity for biologically medi-
ated air-sea CO2 exchange. As one exam-
ple of a regional change, a sidebar by
Frey et al. shows that primary produc-
tivity is declining in Bering Strait due to
earlier ice retreat and hence earlier nutri-
ent consumption in the northern Bering
Sea, with a consequent reduction in
the nutrient supply to the Chukchi Sea.
Stafford et al. review recent changes in
the temporal and spatial distributions of
the upper trophic level components of
the Pacific Arctic region and the link-
ages of these changes to alterations in
prey fields, the warming atmosphere and
ocean, and the decrease in duration and
extent of sea ice. In their sidebar, Kaler
and Kuletz describe how such changes
are also manifested in the increasing fre-
quency of seabird die-offs in this region.
In another article, Anderson et al.
warn that the increase in ocean warm-
ing and the northward transport of cells
from lower latitudes in the Pacific Arctic
region is increasing the frequency and
size of harmful algal blooms that threaten
the food resources of Arctic residents.
Rapid Arctic environmental change
requires improved collaboration among
scientists
and
Indigenous
popula-
tions in observing activities that sup-
port adaptation, and in the develop-
ment of appropriate responses to such
changes. Druckenmiller’s sidebar dis-
cusses the National Science Foundation’s
Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) ini-
tiative. The NNA is ushering in a new
period of convergent research across a
diverse range of societal challenges tied
to Arctic warming— in which there is
greater emphasis on co-production of
knowledge, equity, and holding research
and researchers accountable for whether
their work is benefiting Arctic Peoples.
Erickson and Mustonen document
some of the concerns, difficulties, and
adjustments that Indigenous communi-
ties face based on interviews and histori-
cal references with residents in Erickson’s
home village of Unalakleet in the north-
ern Bering Sea. Several sidebars describe
efforts to engage Indigenous communities
in research and in documenting their cul-
ture in response to a changing climate.
Fienup-Riordan focuses on efforts to
record the history and oral traditions of
the Yup’ik people of Nelson Island, located
on the southeast Bering Sea coast. Ryan
et al. describe a novel program that pro-
vides value to both scientists and the resi-
dents of Uummannaq Bay, Greenland, by
combining remote sensing, ethnographic
data, and community- based monitor-
ing to study changes in landfast sea ice.
Chythlook et al. discuss networking pro-
cesses in support of Indigenous-led proj-
ects on food security. This is part of the
Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks
(SAON) program, an international col-
laboration among scientists, Arctic res-
idents, and government agencies to
develop a long- term pan- Arctic observ-
ing system that serves societal needs.
The loss of sea ice and the increased
duration of the open water season in sec-
tors of the Arctic Ocean allow for a poten-
tial increase in marine use by a diversity
of users and vessels. Such a development
raises concerns about safety and protect-
ing this ocean’s ecosystems. Brigham and
Gamble review strategies for using pol-
icy measures developed through an array
of organizations to protect the Arctic
Ocean into the future. They also provide
a guide to the International Maritime
Organization Code, a new governance
regime that addresses marine safety and
environmental protection challenges for
ships operating in the Arctic Ocean. A