MACHINE LEARNING IN OCEAN REMOTE SENSING
THE AMOC EXAMINED // GULF OF MAINE COLD WAVE
METOCEAN DATA IN SUPPORT OF OFFSHORE WIND ENERGY
Oceanography
THE OFFICIAL MAGAZINE OF THE OCEANOGRAPHY SOCIETY
VOL. 37, NO. 3, SEPTEMBER 2024
September 2024 | Oceanography
GIN
cell
LSW cell
vertical
separation
horizontal separation
STMW
cell
AMOC
5 QUARTERDECK. Oceanography Ofers an Enticing Variety Pack
By E.S. Kappel
6 RIP CURRENT – NEWS IN OCEANOGRAPHY. Early Warning of a Cold Wave
in the Gulf of Maine
By N.R. Record, A.J. Pershing, and D.B. Rasher
10 COMMENTARY. Consensus Around a Common Definition of Atlantic
Overturning Will Promote Progress
By N.P. Foukal and L. Chafik
16 FEATURE ARTICLE. Is the Atlantic Overturning Circulation Approaching
a Tipping Point?
By S. Rahmstorf
30 FEATURE ARTICLE. Developments in Metocean Information in Support
of US Ofshore Wind Energy and the Ocean Sciences
By B.H. Bailey and J.M. Freedman
42 FEATURE ARTICLE. Forecasting a Summer of Extremes: Building Stakeholder
Response Capacity to Marine Heatwaves
By A.J. Hobday, C.M. Spillman, J. Allnutt, M.A. Coleman, F. Bailleul, L.K. Blamey,
S. Brodie, A. Chandrapavan, J.R. Hartog, D. Maynard, C. Mundy, É.E. Plagányi,
F. Seaborn, G.A. Smith, and J. Stuart-Smith
52 FEATURE ARTICLE. The Promise and Pitfalls of Machine Learning in Ocean
Remote Sensing
By P.C. Gray, E. Boss, J.X. Prochaska, H. Kerner, C. Begouen Demeaux,
and Y. Lehahn
64 WORKSHOP REPORT. Western Boundary Current–Subtropical Continental
Shelf Interactions
By W.B. Savidge, D.K. Savidge, F. Brandini, A.T. Greer, E.E. Hofmann,
M. Roughan, I. da Silveira, and I.M. Suthers
70 DIY OCEANOGRAPHY. Satellite Data Sharing for Scientific Inter-Group
Cooperation Using the Leaflet R Package
By C. Marchese, E. Boss, F. Falcini, D. Doxaran, C. de Vargas, G. Pfister,
and V.E. Brando
76 OCEAN EDUCATION. Developing Engineering Skills Through Project-Based
Learning: An Arduino-Based Submersible Temperature and Depth Sensor
By G. Lockridge and K.M. Dorgan
81 THE OCEANOGRAPHY CLASSROOM. Adapting a Teaching Method to Fit
Purpose and Context
By M.S. Glessmer, C. Bovill, and K. Daae
83 FROM THE TOS JEDI COMMITTEE. It Takes a Village: The Sea of Technical,
Administrative, and Other Support Colleagues Who Enable Ocean Science
By S.N. White, F.E. Muller-Karger, and E.L. Meyer-Gutbrod
85 CAREER PROFILES. Scott Loranger, Acoustician and Application
Scientist, Kongsberg Discovery • Jocelyn Runnebaum, Marine Scientist,
The Nature Conservancy
10
52
30
42
September 2024 | Oceanography
contents VOL. 37, NO. 3, SEPTEMBER 2024
Oceanography | Vol. 37, No. 3
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September 2024 | Oceanography
One of the many joys of being the Oceanography editor is working with the community to deliver
a range of article types designed to be of broad interest to readers, from science features, to news
items, educational contributions, DIY projects, workshop reports, career profles, and more. It
is this range of article types that sets Oceanography apart from most journals publishing in the
ocean sciences sphere.
Tis September issue of Oceanography is a great example of the variety of content our journal
delivers. Te issue kicks of with a news item by Record et al. that brings attention to deep- water
oceanographic changes in the Gulf of Maine in 2024 and their possible implications. Te news is
followed by a commentary contributed by Foukal and Chafik who argue for using a density coor-
dinate system to defne the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) rather than the
depth space defnition, and how adopting a common defnition of the AMOC in density coordinates
will promote progress in the feld. Four feature articles covering topics of broad interest to the ocean
sciences community follow this commentary: Rahmstorf on whether the AMOC is approaching a
tipping point, Bailey and Freedman on metocean aspects of ofshore wind energy, Hobday et al.
on building stakeholder response capacity to marine heatwaves, and Gray et al. on developing intu-
ition for using machine learning methods “wisely and in a way that benefts the community.”
Te feature articles are followed by a workshop report contributed by Savidge et al. on “Western
Boundary Current– Subtropical Continental Shelf Interactions.” Next, in a DIY Oceanography arti-
cle, Marchese et al. demonstrate the practical application of the leafet R package, which was used
on an expedition to improve data sharing and visualization, aiding in selection of sampling stations.
An ocean education article by Lockridge and Dorgan describes a half-semester course where stu-
dents build, calibrate, and test an Arduino-based instrument that measures temperature and depth.
Te September issue concludes with our regular columns. Glessmer et al. share tips in
Te Oceanography Classroom on how to adapt teaching methods to ft purpose and context, encour-
aging instructors to experiment with it. Tis month’s JEDI Committee columnists White et al. shine
a light on all the personnel behind the scenes who don’t ofen get recognized for their contribu-
tions to oceanographic research, and they challenge the community to fnd avenues to acknowl-
edge these workers. As Oceanography has done for nearly 15 years, we conclude the issue by shar-
ing two career profles, one contributed by Scott Loranger (Kongsberg Discovery), and another by
Jocelyn Runnebaum (Te Nature Conservancy).
So, grab this issue of Oceanography and enjoy reading it from cover to cover. As an open access
journal, all the individual articles are available from Oceanography’s web pages (https://tos.org/
oceanography/ issue/volume-37-issue-3). Readers can instead choose to page through the fip-
book version found on our digital kiosk (https://oceanographydigital.tos.org/). Please think about
what else you might like to see in the journal and send me—or any of the Oceanography associ-
ate editors (https://tos.org/ oceanography/ editors)—a note. Or submit your own manuscript to
Oceanography through our web portal (https://oceanography.scholasticahq.com/). We look forward
to hearing from you.
QUARTERDECK
Ellen S. Kappel, Editor
Oceanography Ofers an
Enticing Variety Pack
DOI. https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2024.512
Oceanography | Vol. 37, No. 3
RIP CURRENT – NEWS IN OCEANOGRAPHY
EARLY WARNING
OF A COLD WAVE IN THE GULF OF MAINE
By Nicholas R. Record, Andrew J. Pershing, and Douglas B. Rasher
Te Gulf of Maine was one of the frst
marine ecosystems to report a major
ocean heatwave, one that lasted for more
than a year in 2012–2013 and reached
temperatures projected for the end of the
twenty-frst century (Mills et al., 2013).
Tat heatwave drove major ecologi-
cal shifs, including historically low cod
stocks (Pershing et al., 2015), a multi-
year unusual mortality event for the
endangered North Atlantic right whale
(Record et al., 2019), the collapse of
northern shrimp (Richards and Hunter,
2021), the near disappearance of blue
mussels from the intertidal zone (Sorte
et al., 2017), and other efects (Reardon
et al., 2018; Scopel et al., 2019). While
these impacts constituted a major sur-
prise that drew a great deal of attention
(e.g., Woodard, 2020), the consequences
were documented only afer the fact,
highlighting the need to monitor rapid or
surprising oceanographic changes as they
are happening.
Subsequent research showed that the
heatwave was preceded by extremely
warm deep water entering the gulf
through the Northeast Channel a year
prior (Balch et al., 2022). Te Northeast
Channel is the only conduit for deep
water into this shallow sea, and because
of the sheer volume of water below
the thermocline, the water masses that
enter through this path have an out-
sized infuence on long-term dynamics.
Tis infuence is generally a refection of
the “Coupled Slope Water System” that
includes the Gulf of Maine (MERCINA
Working Group, 2001) and that is tightly
connected over long timescales to the
deep water in the Northeast Channel
(Sherwood et al., 2011). Changes in the
state of this system have coincided with
approximately decadal regime shifs in
the Gulf of Maine ecosystem (Greene
and Pershing 2007; Meyer-Gutbrod et al.,
2021). Oceanographers have suggested
the potential for early warnings of major
changes based on upstream dynamics
(Greene and Pershing, 2003; Gonçalves
Neto et al., 2021). Because of the impor-
tance of subsurface currents to this pro-
cess, focusing on surface conditions can
mask important dynamics.
Afer more than a decade of consis-
tently warming conditions, the deep
water in the Gulf of Maine has a thermo-
haline regime not detected since before
the heatwave signal appeared in 2011.
A buoy in Jordan Basin has recorded
water column temperatures and salinities
near-continuously since 2003 (Figure 1a).
Prior to 2011, mean annual tempera-
tures at 250 m depth had ranged from
approximately 7°C to 8.5°C. Since 2011,
these temperatures have ranged from
approximately 8.5°C to 10°C (Figure 1a).
Te lack of overlap between these two
regimes supports the idea that the supply
of water through the Northeast Channel
has undergone a major shif from sub-
arctic Labrador Slope Water to subtrop-
ical slope water associated with the Gulf
Stream. Te shif in salinity—a conserved
property—is consistent with a change in
source waters. Te fact that 2024 stands
out somewhat from the cluster of other
cold, fresh years suggests that the colder,
fresher Labrador source water, while sig-
nifcantly colder than it was in the past
decade, is running around 1°C warmer
ABSTRACT. Oceanographic changes are occurring more rapidly in recent decades,
with new implications for ocean ecosystems and adjacent human communities. It is
important to bring attention to these changes while they are unfolding rather than afer
they have occurred. Here we report on a rapid shif toward colder, fresher water in the
deep Gulf of Maine that, as of mid-June 2024, has persisted for at least six months.
Te shif likely represents an infux of Labrador Slope Water and resembles conditions
that predated a major warming shif that occurred in 2011–2012. Deep-water oceano-
graphic conditions in the Gulf of Maine have a strong infuence on ecosystem dynam-
ics, including the prey of critically endangered North Atlantic right whales, the sea-
sonal and disease dynamics of American lobster, and the distribution and abundance
of kelp forest communities, among others. Oceanographic surprises have an important
role in this system, and monitoring how this shif unfolds, oceanographically and eco-
logically, will give new insights into how oceanographic signals can inform our under-
standing of ecosystem responses.
September 2024 | Oceanography
than the historical Labrador source water
of the early 2000s. Tis is consistent with
warming in the upstream source region.
At a time when North Atlantic sur-
face temperatures were broadly break-
ing record warming levels during 2023
(Hobday et al., 2023), Gulf of Maine sur-
face conditions were running just a little
above average. Meanwhile, a shif toward
an input of Labrador Slope Water that
began setting up during the fall of 2023
was detectable in the subsurface waters
(Figure 1c). Conditions in 2024 have been
consistently within the temperature and
salinity ranges that characterize the pre-
2011 period—conditions that had not
been recorded since before the heatwave.
Based on long-term climate projec-
tions, we expect the water mass input
to shif at some point back toward the
previous warm and salty conditions
(Brickman et al., 2021). However, we
do not know when or how quickly that
return will occur. Because of the large
volume of water and its separation from
the atmosphere, such deep-water condi-
tions carry a lot of thermal inertia. More
importantly, the winter and spring ocean-
ographic conditions at depth have histor-
ically had strong associations with how
the biology of the Gulf of Maine devel-
ops over the summer. Efects can con-
tinue into autumn, as vertical mixing
carries deep waters to the surface. Tus,
these conditions can serve as an early sig-
nal for potential ecological shifs in the
coming months whose possible efects are
described below.
NORTH ATLANTIC RIGHT WHALES. Te
primary prey of these critically endan-
gered whales, the copepod Calanus
fnmarchicus, is strongly infuenced by
the supply and conditions set up by these
same deep-water dynamics. During the
historic cold, fresh years, C. fnmarchicus
was abundant in the eastern Gulf of
Maine, and large numbers of right whales
would aggregate annually in late sum-
mer to feed. Following the heatwave, the
prey supply declined sharply and right
whales began foraging elsewhere, leading
to a complex chain of events that chal-
lenge our ability to manage this species
and the human activities that threaten
it (Davies and Brillant, 2019). Because
of the timeframe of oceanographic sup-
ply and C. fnmarchicus ontogeny, these
FIGURE 1. (a) Location of the Jordan Basin buoy (dot) and the general path of Labrador Slope Water into the Gulf of Maine superimposed on the winter
2024 sea surface temperature anomaly (January–March Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature [OISST] anomaly from the 30-year mean, °C).
(b) Annual mean temperature and salinity conditions at 250 m depth in Jordan Basin. Gray lines show the range of monthly mean values. (c) Monthly
temperature and salinity anomalies at 250 m depth in Jordan Basin. Missing values are times when no data were collected by the instrumentation.
°C
Oceanography | Vol. 37, No. 3
late summer declines were preceded by
spring shifs in deep-water conditions
(Record et al., 2019). Tere is no guar-
antee that a return to pre-heatwave con-
ditions will resupply C. fnmarchicus to
the eastern Gulf of Maine, as the rela-
tive importance of supply versus local
dynamics is still uncertain (Pershing and
Kemberling, 2024). However, in either
case, it is a shif that we should be look-
ing out for, given the sensitive state of
this management issue. Targeted whale
or zooplankton surveys would be help-
ful, as well as coordinated communica-
tion among those with eyes on the water
for opportunistic sightings.
AMERICAN LOBSTERS. Deep-water con-
ditions in spring strongly infuence the
timing of molt and inshore migration and
rates of post-settlement survival (Goode
et al., 2019) of the American lobster—
a species that supports a nearly billion-
dollar fshery. Changes in this phenol-
ogy can drive big swings in prices, and
because of the strong dependence on
temperature, deep waters in spring are
predictive of molt timing (Mills et al.,
2017). Based on the predictive power of
spring bottom temperatures, a success-
ful forecasting strategy was developed,
but operational forecasts were stopped
at the request of the industry (Pershing
et al., 2018). Deep-water temperatures
in the coastal zone have not yet cooled
to pre-heatwave conditions, but they are
getting close. Such a signifcant shif in
deep-water dynamics should be moni-
tored for its efects on stock dynamics. In
addition to ongoing buoy observations,
opportunistic water column profles
or bottom-moored thermistors would
fll gaps and give a more detailed map
of these dynamics.
KELP FORESTS. Deep-water conditions
also infuence the thermodynamics of
coastal waters where kelp forests prevail.
Such forests—which foster biodiversity,
fuel nearshore food webs, and underpin an
aquaculture industry—were widespread
at the turn of the twenty-frst century.
However, in response to unusually warm
springs and summers, forests in the
southwestern Gulf have since collapsed,
and forests in the northeast have become
less lush, with a loss of subarctic taxa
(Suskiewicz et al., 2024). A tempo-
rary return to pre-heatwave conditions
is unlikely to foster recovery of south-
ern forests because they have shifed to a
novel, alternative stable state, but cooler
conditions may bring a banner year for
kelp recruitment in the north, given the
positive efects of “cold-priming” on kelp
reproduction and recruitment (Liesner
et al., 2020; Gauci et al., 2022). Te poten-
tial efects of cooling on kelp abundance
may take one or more years to manifest, so
continual ecosystem monitoring will be
necessary for understanding the impacts
of deep-water cooling on forest resilience.
Learning how to use oceanographic
conditions as early warnings is a multi-
decadal learning process. Ocean and cli-
mate surprises, generally defned as mis-
matches between the expectations and
the realities of changing conditions, have
the potential to drive changes in human
and natural systems (Pershing et al.,
2019), and they have played a particu-
larly important role in the Gulf of Maine
(Record et al., 2023). If we hope to use
real-time oceanographic measurements
to prepare for future events, as some have
suggested (Link et al., 2023), we are obli-
gated to report signifcant events as they
unfold. We don’t mean to imply that this
oceanographic shif will return the Gulf of
Maine to a pre-heatwave ecosystem—that
is probably impossible in a world with
426 ppm CO2 concentrations (and ris-
ing). However, this type of oceanographic
change has had major efects in the past,
and we should be paying close attention
this summer and fall as events unfold.
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